Jun 15, 2022 at 11:46am ET
A recent analysis from the research firm Bloomberg Intelligence foresees a significant reorganization at the top of the pyramid of EV manufacturers. It implies that Volkswagen will overtake Tesla as the current global leader in around 18 months and that Tesla won’t hold onto the top spot for very long.
According to the research, the Volkswagen group already sells more electric vehicles in Europe (310,000 vehicles compared to Tesla’s under 170,000, although the latter is an unverified statistic given by Jato Dynamics), and last year it saw a two-fold increase in EV sales over the previous year. Although the number of EVs sold by VW in the US in 202137,200tripled those sold in 2020, the automaker still has goals to expand its market share in the country.
The fact that the majority of models are sold out for 2022 is evidence that Volkswagen EVs are truly quite popular, albeit this may also be partially attributed to delivery times growing longer as a result of the several issues now plaguing the world and the whole automotive industry.
Tesla also reported record sales for 2021, selling an astonishing 936,222 electric vehicles globally. As a result of the $50 billion in annual revenue, the electric vehicle manufacturer rose 35 spots on the Fortune 500 list.
According to the estimate, the market share of electric vehicles would increase from the 6% anticipated in 2021 to 15% by 2025. Since the sales mix for EVs is only anticipated to reach 6 percent by the middle of the decade, China, Europe, and the US will be the main drivers of this growth, along with the US to a lesser extent.
In third position for EV sales in 2025, Bloomberg anticipates BYD, the current Chinese leader. It’s interesting to note that the prognosis is that BYD would be able to keep its local leadership, but that Changan and eventually Geely will closely trail it. Dongfeng, as well as the two major EV companies from China, Nio and Xpeng, will present fierce competition.
The F-150 Lightning is viewed as the first significant electric model from a legacy automaker that will actually help with US EV acceptance, and the report in Ford’s case gives an optimistic outlook pointing to the projected success of this vehicle. Up till now, Tesla has mostly dominated the US auto market, but from 2025 or 2026, traditional automakers will start to threaten Tesla’s dominance.
The entire Bloomberg Intelligence report, which is available for free download and has 33 pages of information, can be downloaded for free. However, you should always take this kind of information with a grain of salt because it only provides a general estimate based on historical data and recent trends and does not take into account unforeseen disruptions or breakthroughs.
In This Article...
Can VW catch up to Tesla?
According to a June 14 analysis by Bloomberg Intelligence, Tesla is projected to lose its position as the largest electric vehicle manufacturer in the world in less than two years. The German auto giant Volkswagen Group, whose EV selection is expanding quickly across numerous brands and contesting Tesla’s appeal in the world’s main markets for electric vehicles, may surpass it as the manufacturer selling the most EVs.
By volume of sales, Volkswagen is the second-largest automaker in the world, behind Toyota. The firm owns six additional auto brands in addition to its own name-brand Volkswagen, including Audi, KODA, Lamborghini, and Porsche. It competes with Tesla’s mass-market Model 3 and Y and its luxury Model S and X vehicles with its electric vehicle offerings under the VW, Audi, and Porsche brands.
Volkswagen sold roughly 450,000 electric vehicles worldwide in the previous year. That is significantly less than what Tesla delivered. The two businesses are, however, reasonably close opponents outside of the United States, where Tesla is clearly the winner, particularly in Europe and China, which are the world’s two largest markets for passenger EVs, according to the Bloomberg study. According to Bloomberg data, total EV sales in these two regions were more than five times higher in 2021 than in the United States.
In 2021, Europe (70 percent) and China (20 percent) combined to account for more than 90% of Volkswagen’s EV sales. According to production data from its Shanghai Gigafactory, which provides Model 3 and Y vehicles to China and Europe, Tesla sold only 10% more than Volkswagen in these two areas last year. Tesla doesn’t reveal sales data by country.
Volkswagen has a better outlook than Tesla in Europe
Volkswagen has a decent chance to prevail in Europe, but Tesla already has a first-mover advantage in China. According to Bloomberg analysts, Volkswagen is the only traditional carmaker with a substantially extensive EV lineup and a clear path to profitability.
According to the study, Audi’s midsize electric SUV, the Q4 e-tron, already has a profit margin comparable to that of its Audi Q3 cousin with an internal combustion engine.
The most expensive part of an electric automobile, the batteries, are keenly monitored by analysts. To increase profitability, Tesla and Volkswagen both intend to transfer battery development and manufacture in-house. Tesla intends to manufacture batteries at its new factory in Berlin, Germany, and Volkswagen has committed to constructing six battery plants in Europe by 2030.
According to Michael Dean, a senior analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, “automakers in Europe, China, and other countries will continue to challenge Tesla through an imminent flood of new models, while profit incentives are constrained due to escalating battery prices and a lack of scale.
Analysts anticipate that Volkswagen will have sufficient financial resources to support future expansion if it is successful in going public with the Porsche brand before the end of the year. It is anticipated that the spinoff will be valued at more than $100 billion, exceeding the parent company’s present market value.
VW: a threat to Tesla?
According to a study, Volkswagen will surpass Tesla in EV sales by 2024.
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Volkswagen is gradually closing the gap with Tesla in the market for electric vehicles. According to Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess, the German carmaker is well-positioned to close the gap with Tesla in the next months. VW is now second behind Tesla in the global EV market. According to a Bloomberg Intelligence report, Volkswagen is also anticipated to surpass Tesla in terms of electric vehicle sales by 2024. It’s interesting that this information surfaced so soon after Tesla CEO Elon Musk said that, in his perspective, Volkswagen is the second-best manufacturer of electric vehicles, behind Tesla.
Volkswagen made the defeat device for what purpose?
When Volkswagen discovered that their engine couldn’t meet the emission limits established by several nations, the company started deploying the software-based defeat mechanism. This was a freshly developed diesel-based engine that came at a considerable expense to the business.
Who in Europe sells the most EVs?
By June 2022, Tesla’s Model Y had surpassed the Model 3 to claim the top spot among electric vehicles sold in Europe. The Peugeot e-208, Volkswagen’s ID. 4, and the Fiat 500 electric made up the top five.
In India, why did Volkswagen fail?
While we are aware that some of Volkswagen’s current problems include competition with considerably lower prices, shifting fashion trends, the demand for SUVs, a lack of a diverse product line, and the company’s inability to keep the Indian market interested in new goods.
Who will surpass Tesla first?
DETROIT
According to the yearly “Car Wars” study, incumbent automakers like General Motors and Ford are predicted to surpass Tesla Inc., whose electric vehicle market share is forecast to decline from a stifling 70 percent now to just 11 percent by 2025 as a result of increased competition.
With the help of new products like the F-150 Lightning and the upcoming Chevrolet Silverado EV, John Murphy, a senior auto analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, predicted that by 2025, GM and Ford would each hold about 15% of the EV market. This would be an increase of about 10% from where both automakers currently stand.
At an Automotive Press Association event held in this city, Murphy declared that “the domination Tesla’s had in the EV industry, particularly in the U.S., is done.” “In the next four years, it’s going to turn dramatically in the opposite direction.”
Will Tesla withstand rivalry?
Analysts predict that in a few years, Tesla’s market share would decline from its present levels of roughly 7075% to 2025%. According to some estimates, the market share may only be 10% or less by 2025.
Which business surpassed Tesla?
According to corporate documents, Chinese automaker BYD has eclipsed Tesla as the world’s top manufacturer of electric vehicles, highlighting Beijing’s competitive advantage in the market.
According to business documents, BYD, which is partially controlled by Warren Buffett, sold 641,000 vehicles in the first half of 2022, an increase of more than 300% from the same period in 2017.
However, not all of BYD’s sales were of fully electric cars like those produced by Tesla. Instead, some of them were internal combustion engines-equipped plug-in hybrid passenger cars. Nevertheless, these automobiles are considered “zero emissions vehicles” under China’s sales regulations.
VW produces how many more electric vehicles than Tesla?
Tesla automobiles produced at the Gruenheide, Germany, facility. While VW sold over 453,000 completely electric vehicles last year, Tesla delivered more than 936,000 EVs globally.
What will the price of electric automobiles be in 2025?
According to a recent research from the Environmental Defense Fund, the growth of EV sales over the past few years has the potential to usher in an epochal change in the auto industry over the next ten years.
The Electric Vehicle Market Update, the sixth in a series of papers tracking EV growth, observes that the electric vehicle sector has particularly gained speed in the last year, despite supply chain challenges that have impacted the whole auto industry as well as concerns over materials. The report states that EV sales increased 40% globally and 4% in the US over the previous year.
The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine have stated that “the era from 2025-2035 could bring the greatest fundamental transformation in the 100+ year history of the car,” and the research anticipates that momentum will continue.
According to the research, this shift will be fueled by declining battery costs, which will enable EVs to match internal-combustion car prices and take market share by 2035.
It predicts that through 2025, automakers would invest more than $515 billion in the development of new electric passenger vehicles and battery production infrastructure.
According to the research, 13 corporations intend to invest $75 billion in battery factories across six states in the United States. The American supply chain will likely need to be overhauled as a result; the Biden administration, for instance, recently declared that it will employ the Defense Development Act to boost the production of EV batteries.
The controversy involving Volkswagen was caused by who?
In a settlement with other former executives totaling 288 million, Volkswagen announced on Wednesday that its former chief executive, Martin Winterkorn, would pay the company 11.2 million euros (roughly $13.7 million) for “breach[s] of due diligence that led to the company’s emissions cheating scandal.
The announcement was made on the same day that Mr. Winterkorn was accused of lying to the German parliament about his knowledge of the automaker’s emissions problem by prosecutors in Berlin, raising new concerns about his involvement in a cover-up.
Even though Mr. Winterkorn left in 2015, when the scandal first surfaced, what he knew about the emissions cheating has remained a major concern for Volkswagen. Overall, the scandal has cost Volkswagen tens of billions of euros in penalties, settlements, and legal fees.
The company had secretly fitted millions of diesel-powered VW cars with special software, known as a defeat device, to cheat on emissions tests, the gimmick making the vehicles appear environmentally friendly and appealing to ecologically conscious consumers, according to prosecutors in Berlin, who claimed that Mr. Winterkorn knew far earlier than he had acknowledged to a parliamentary panel in 2017.
Berlin prosecutors stated in a statement that the accused “falsely claimed in his testimony that he was just made aware of the defeat devices in September 2015.”
His knowledge of the fact that some VW vehicles’ engine control software had a feature that allowed it to modify exhaust values during testing began in May 2015, according to the indictment, prosecutors said.
The most recent legal attack on Mr. Winterkorn coincided with Volkswagen’s Wednesday announcement that it was being investigated anew by French authorities for falsifying emissions testing.
Previously reluctant to openly accuse former top management of involvement in the emissions deception, Volkswagen has now decided to seek compensation from past leaders.
The settlement must be approved at the annual shareholders’ meeting next month, and in addition to Mr. Winterkorn, Rupert Stadler, the former CEO of the Audi luxury car division, has agreed to pay 4.1 million. The majority of the remaining payments will be made by insurance companies providing directors’ and officers’ coverage.
Mr. Winterkorn, who continues to be charged with fraud-related crimes in Braunschweig, a town close to VW’s Wolfsburg headquarters, has long maintained that he was not aware of any wrongdoing.
Volkswagen paid $20 billion to address civil and criminal charges relating to the scandal in early 2017 after entering a guilty plea to criminal charges in the United States, which included conspiracy to deceive the government, violations of the Clean Air Act, and obstruction of justice.